Today marks seven months of Ukraine-Russia war. So far, many ups and downs have happened between the two countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained unwavering in his goal by pointing the finger at Western sanctions. Putin recently said he would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Russia’s “territorial integrity” was threatened. The world leaders have sensed that he did not say this just as a joke.
The threat of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine has shaken Western leaders. Recently, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the EU must take Putin’s threat seriously. He is not faking at all.
President Vladimir Putin’s thinly veiled threat has sparked intense debate in the West. They are already worried about how to respond.
In a televised address last Wednesday, the Russian leader said he would use nuclear weapons if Russian territories were threatened and would not make a fuss about it. He even announced to send 300,000 reserve troops to Ukraine.
Putin also said, ‘Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know, the wind can turn in their direction too.’
Analysts are also uncertain whether Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons for the first time since the 1945 nuclear attack on Japan. However, a number of experts and officials spoke to the news agency AFP about the possible scenarios that could arise if Russia launched a nuclear attack.
What would a Russian nuclear attack look like?
Analysts believe Moscow will likely deploy one or more ‘strategic’ nuclear bombs. Compared to the largest US strategic warhead of 1.2 megatons or the 58 megaton bomb tested by Russia in 1961, strategic nukes are small weapons with explosive yields ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 100 kilotons.
Strategic small bombs are designed to have a limited effect on the battlefield while strategic large nuclear weapons are designed to win all-out wars.
But ‘small’ and ‘limited’ weapons are largely relative. In fact, the bomb that the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 had a devastating effect of only 15 kilotons.
What could be Moscow’s goal?
Analysts say Russia’s aim in using strategic nuclear bombs in Ukraine would be to intimidate it into surrender or negotiate and divide the country’s Western supporters.
Mark Kancian, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said Russia would probably not use nuclear weapons on the front lines. Occupying the 32 km area may require the use of multiple nuclear bombs, which would create greater risk for less gain. Just using one weapon won’t do.
Moscow could instead send a strong message and avoid significant casualties by detonating a nuclear bomb over water, or detonating it over Ukraine to generate an electromagnetic pulse.
Alternatively, Putin could attack Ukrainian military bases or attack urban centers, causing heavy casualties and possibly killing the country’s political leadership.
Such a scenario would likely be designed to split the NATO alliance and build a global consensus against Putin, former White House nuclear policy expert John Wolfstahl wrote on Substack on Friday. It is not clear whether this will be successful.
(September 24)