| What I am going to outline over this series | | | | reflect purely a historical paper-based |
| of articles is a method that can be used | | | | assessment of a horses chances as viewed by |
| successfully for trading horses on Betfair. | | | | the bookmaker, but as the day wears on "news" |
| | | | begins to move prices rapidly, and as the |
| I guarantee this method works and will make | | | | horses start "going down" the action really |
| you a profit with minimal financial risk to | | | | takes off. |
| your overall betting pot. If you stick | | | | |
| rigidly to the rules!! | | | | Prices at 10/1 in the morning can be 5/1 or |
| | | | 20/1 by the time the horses are entering the |
| I am going to have to make qualifying | | | | stalls. |
| statements because if you don't stick | | | | |
| carefully to the rules and instructions, you | | | | This is where the experienced confident |
| will lose money over the long term. | | | | trader can really scalp the market and make |
| | | | guaranteed profits depending on their |
| My qualifications are as below: | | | | expertise. |
| | | | |
| + 5 years as a traditional horse racing | | | | Before you get carried away with this |
| punter (loser overall) | | | | information, beware! |
| | | | |
| + 2 years of Betfair punting breaking even. | | | | The real challenge in horse trading is as |
| | | | always the crucial missing link in the chain |
| + 6 months using my finely tuned trading | | | | that other so-called "experts" always forget |
| method (overall profit) | | | | to tell you. |
| | | | |
| Why am I giving away this information, wont | | | | "knowing" which race and which horse price |
| it affect my profits? | | | | are going to move to a significant enough |
| | | | degree to cover the market spread and so |
| I'm sure you've seen these sort of statements | | | | allow you to trade. |
| before on your own research into Betfair. | | | | |
| | | | Steaming is the movement of horse prices |
| There are betting systems galore presented on | | | | downward. Drifting is the reverse. Movement |
| the internet. Everyone claims their system is | | | | of horse prices upwards. |
| the only one that works. | | | | |
| | | | It is possible to trade in both directions. |
| Surprisingly, the standard answer to this | | | | Most professional traders however look for |
| question for once is actually true, and I | | | | steamers as this is where you will get the |
| will attempt to explain why. | | | | greatest liquidity due to lack of backers on |
| | | | horses which are drifting for obvious |
| Similarly to the Stock Market trading or | | | | reasons. |
| scalping on Betfair relies totally on | | | | |
| liquidity and volatility or in layman's | | | | This is where most trading "advisors" and |
| terms.CASH and NEWS!! | | | | book writers and manuals leave you. Like most |
| | | | promises of wealth and success on the |
| The more cash flowing through any financial | | | | internet, there's hype more hype a little bit |
| trading system the more bull and bear trends | | | | of advertising and then a tiny nugget of an |
| are followed and therefore exaggerated. This | | | | idea at the end which has cost you £200. |
| in turn leads to trends being more defined | | | | |
| and longer lasting and so becoming easier to | | | | Later I will be showing you exactly how I go |
| trade. | | | | about looking for steamers that I can get on |
| | | | early enough to guarantee a worthwhile profit |
| With more cash attempting to trade these | | | | for my efforts. |
| peaks and troughs bigger bets can be matched | | | | |
| and so on and so forth. | | | | As you learn and refine your own trading |
| | | | style and expertise you will get a feel of |
| These systems are self perpetuating until the | | | | your own for steamers. Everything else is |
| bubble created by buyers matching sellers, in | | | | academic and can be taught, the art of |
| other words demand matching supply, bursts!! | | | | finding a steamer and timing your trades is |
| | | | just something you develop and learn by |
| And what is the initial trigger for a trend | | | | practice. |
| up or down or a sharp change of direction? | | | | |
| | | | Innovate, experiment, and learn by doing. |
| Well in the Stock Market there are a variety | | | | Take the pain of losing bets and always |
| of different factors, but ultimately the | | | | ruminate, cogitate and digest the information |
| sharp price movements are all triggered by | | | | as to what went wrong and why. |
| NEWS. | | | | |
| | | | This is the only way you will learn to |
| Okay, this news may come from a thousand | | | | identify steamers and trade them effectively. |
| different sources ie profit warnings, | | | | |
| changing fundamantals such as account | | | | FACT: The more people using these and any |
| statements and balance sheets, movements of | | | | other methods and systems on Betfair the |
| the related exchange index, all the way down | | | | better for everyone. |
| to things as spurious as hurricane warnings, | | | | |
| terror attacks and the interest rate. | | | | For every punter that I teach to win, there |
| | | | will be a hundred others who will be using |
| Trading the Stock Market, it's extremely | | | | this and/or other systems. |
| difficult for the average punter to follow | | | | |
| these sources of news 24/7 and piece them | | | | 90% of people attempting to learn and follow |
| together because they come from so many | | | | a system will ignore a lot of the rules and |
| different angles and by the time you hear | | | | caveats, or won't be as good or determined as |
| about them the market is often already | | | | the top 10%. |
| pricing in the news. | | | | |
| | | | Therefore they will lose their money, which |
| You are competing against multi billion pound | | | | then in turn becomes available for you to |
| corporations, banks and pension funds, guys | | | | win!! |
| in the city who are paid huge sums to trade | | | | |
| this information. Robots and multi-million | | | | Let us get one thing straight about Betfair: |
| dollar auto-trading computerized facilities | | | | |
| compete for every penny. | | | | When you begin to win then the money you will |
| | | | receive is being taken from losing punters. |
| Unless you are sitting in a news conference | | | | |
| with a laptop and wi-fi you will never beat | | | | Betfair is just a MEDIUM, hence the phrase |
| these markets. | | | | "EXCHANGE" that matches your money directly |
| | | | with money from another punter or punters |
| The news can happen at any time of day or | | | | with an opposing view about an event. |
| night meaning you can wake to find you've | | | | |
| missed an important piece of news and your | | | | If you are backing an "event" to win then the |
| Stock has plummeted at opening time. | | | | money you are wagering is matched against |
| | | | another who is "laying" the event to lose. |
| The reason Betfair is the perfect "trading" | | | | |
| medium is due to the massive volatility | | | | To really understand Betfair trading we need |
| involved in horse racing, and enough | | | | to understand the benefits of liquidity and |
| liquidity around the top horses in a race. | | | | volatility to experienced traders, and to do |
| | | | this we will use an example of liquidity and |
| A horse race is also a defined entity with | | | | volatility in action in the Stock Market. |
| prices starting the night before, a race | | | | |
| start and a race end i.e. the Stock exists | | | | In my next article I will be looking at a |
| essentially for less than a day. The market | | | | recent FTSE 100 Stock situation to |
| is too volatile and unpredictable for the big | | | | demonstrate a perfect example of volatility |
| players. It is a collection of small players | | | | and liquidity in the Stock Market and how |
| like yourself pitting their wits against each | | | | professional traders make easy money by |
| other and the system. | | | | disseminating vital news in advance of the |
| | | | market. |
| The racing prices given early in the day | | | | |